Throne Speech of Oct. 16, 2007

I've always been more interested in federal politics than provincial. I'm not sure why, it's just been the way it's gone. I suppose as I move on to having a more personal involvement with the educational and medical spectres (due to children and elderly parents), my interest will likely increase over time, but as for now, I was relatively bored with the provincial election, but took an acute interest in the throne speech, delivered yesterday by Michaelle Jean (although of course written by Stephen Harper & advisors).

Harper seems to like to work in groups of five. He had five priorities for the last election, and he's followed it up with five priorities for this term of government:

1. Strengthening Canada's sovereignty and place in the world;
2. Building a stronger federation;
3. Providing effective economic leadership;
4. Continuing to tackle crime; and
5. Improving our environment.

The biggest "surprise" would be the inclusion of the environment, but that was pretty much a given due to the media outcry over the issue. Whereas the last throne speech included a few vague words on the environment, this one included 11 paragraphs. Interestingly, it included a new direction for the government on the issue (more on that below).

The priorities:

Strengthening Canada's sovereignty and place in the world:

Highlights included:

• Improving living conditions in the North for First Nations through better housing
• Building an arctic research station
• Mapping Arctic seabed
• Increasing patrol ships/surveillance of the Arctic
• Modernizing Canadian military, increasing reservist policies
• Improving support for veterans
• Implementing Afghan mission until 2011 (period covered by Afghanistan Compact

A surprising focus on the Arctic, but perhaps this is only due to my lack of experience with the topic. There's an interesting relationship to the environment, as Arctic research could be directly related to determining the extent and tracking the development of alterations in the earth's climate.

The words related to the military appear standard: modernize, etc. Improving support for veterans appears to be a worthwhile cause - it is interesting to think that as the number of major world wars fall farther and farther into the rear-view mirror, the number of veterans from those wars continue to fall.

By far the most contentious of these objectives will be the continuation of the Afghan mission until 2011. I really don't buy the "Support our troops by bringing them home" argument - in a time where we have people enter the army by choice, they have chosen to subject themselves to that lifestyle, and it seems strange for a civilian to believe that they are "supporting" the troops by removing them from their chosen profession. The Afghan mission is UN-sanctioned and supported, appears to be doing good (even the opposition agrees), and is focused on far more than simply "fighting". I can support that.

Building a stronger federation

Highlights included:

• Implementing legislation to put formal limits on use of federal spending power for new shared-cost programs in areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction
• Consulting with voters on changes to senate, including appointment process and term limits
• Developing strategy for next phase of Action Plan for Official Languages
• Implementing legislation to guarantee Aboriginal people on reserves same protections under the Canadian Human Rights Act, and legislation specific claims
• Issuing an apology for the Indian Residential Schools matter

I'm all for senate changes - specifically elections and limits on the length of service. If we are going to keep the Senate (which I think we should), it needs to be modeled more after the American model - provide some real options and give it real teeth.

With respect to limits on the federal spending power - a formalization of this process cannot be harmful.

Providing effective economic leadership

Highlights included:

• Cutting the GST as promised by another percentage point
• Protecting cultural and intellectual property rights, specifically copyright
• Improving governance of Employment Insurance
• Implementing an infrastructure plan to support long-term growth
• Supporting workers in key industries, including: forestry, fisheries, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, mining

The GST cut isn't a surprise - indeed, just a follow-up on a campaign promise. You could wonder whether there would be a corresponding suggestion for a PST cut as well (at least for us Ontarians), but I'm not holding my breath for Dalton.

Copyright reform is probably needed, as the law is quite complex and convoluted.

Supporting infrastructure is critical, as it has a ripple effect on all areas of daily living. This is an area that should be a focus of all governments, and it's nice to see it prioritized.

The one major issue I felt was lacking was a further income tax cut - which I would have definitely preferred to the GST cut, but it is my speculation that the CPC is saving that one for an "election bullet" so to speak. Harper clearly does not want to empty his gun too early, and the lack of tax relief (apart from the GST) leads me to believe that it will be a major plank of Election 2007? (or, hopefully, 2008 or 2009).

Continuing to tackle crime

Highlights included:

• Reintroducing a "Tackling Violent Crime" bill to provide stricter measures on violent criminals and predators, including: age of protection, impaired driving, dangerous offenders and stricter bail/mandatory prison sentences for gun crimes
• Strengthening the Youth Criminal Justice Act for young offenders who commit serious crimes
• Implementing a National Anti-Drug Strategy
• Recruiting 2,500 more police officers
• Legislating to ensure protection against terrorism and responding to the Supreme Court of Canada's decision on security certificates

Harper was obviously not impressed that his Violent Crime bill didn't make it through last time, and intends to rectify the situation immediately. As he has outlined that all bills related to the Throne Speech will be confidence matters, this could possibly be a 'poison pill' once it appears down the legislative road. If Dion/Layton/Duceppe shoot this one down, it will be a major argument of Harper's come election time (and should any of them vote against it, there will be some explaining to do).

Toughening the Youth Criminal Justice Act isn't a surprise, but could be more contentious due to the variances on belief about young offenders. The specifics will be interesting to follow, as this has the potential to be a campaign issue (or at the very least issue in the House).

Police officers are needed, and will be provided. This shouldn't be particularly contentious, as it's hard to argue that we shouldn't have more officers (unless the argument is the money should be spent elsewhere, but a specific objective would need to be substituted).

Improving our environment

Highlights included:

• Pressing for international agreement to cut global emissions in half by 2050
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 60-70% by 2050
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2020
• Binding national regulations on greenhouse gas emissions
• Implementing national air pollution regulations
• Stating Kyoto targets will not be reached
• Implementing new water strategy to clean up major lakes/oceans/access to safe drinking water for First Nations
• Bolstering protection of water and land through tougher environmental enforcement with accountability to polluters
• Introducing measures on food and product safety

Quite the extensive list. No surprise on the final rejection of Kyoto - it wasn't going to happen anyways, and fault can be divided appropriately. The intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (20% by 2020) lacks teeth, but is a start.

The national air pollution regulations are key - and one of the major planks of this environmental strategy. Essentially, the government is saying "we're going to deal with greenhouse gas emissions, but the focus of the strategy is to get cleaner air and cleaner water".

For me, that is a much more important goal. Clearly, things need to be done about our climate, but with smog advisories every day in the summer and water pollution problems a daily news update, they appear to be pressing issues. Greenhouse gas emissions might kill us in 50 years, but air pollution and water pollution is killing us now.

Interestingly, Dion will have a hard time supporting what has to be the most comprehensive environmental throne speech of all time in Canada(and likely in history for what is known as a "Conservative" government). His horse is tied to the Kyoto wagon, and now that the government is rejecting that wagon, he'll be hard-pressed to do an about face on that issue.

In short - the greenhouse gas emission targets feel weak, and will be correctly viewed as such, but the focus on water and air pollution will see immediate benefits, and is critically important.

Overall, an in-depth throne speech with a particular focus on crime and the environment. Two parties (NDP, BQ) have already stated their intentions to vote against it, leaving Dion's Liberals as the determining party. Harper would likely love to go to the polls now with this throne speech as the backbone of his electoral platform (with the aforementioned income tax cut in his back pocket), and Dion would likely love to avoid an election, as he would be the prohibitive underdog. However, it will be difficult for him to vote for the throne speech due to the provisions regarding the environment (and to a lesser extent, continuing the Afghan mission until 2011).

My money says that enough members of Dion's caucus are "sick" on the day of the vote to avoid a potentially embarrassing situation where the opposition votes to keep the government intact. The speech passes, and Dion figures out a way to kill the government at some point surrounding the next budget (but not likely on the budget itself).